Solar Will Power Everything by 2044

Solar energy has been growing exponentially at about 26% per year, while total global energy demand grows at just 1.5% per year.¹ When you plot these curves, you get a striking pattern: solar appears to grow slowly for decades before suddenly shooting upward to overtake total energy consumption. If these trends continue, solar will become our primary energy source around 2044. This might sound absurd given how little of our energy currently comes from solar. This skepticism is natural, but it's also familiar. The energy establishment has consistently, dramatically underestimated solar's growth:

As shared by Auke Hoekstra, this chart tells a remarkable story: actual solar installations have consistently been more than three times higher than five-year forecasts predicted. While experts projected linear growth or even declining installations, reality has followed an exponential curve upward. The pattern is so consistent it's almost comedic - every few years, experts reset their linear projections from a higher baseline, only to be proven wrong again.

The Math Behind the Projection

Let's look at the data. Drawing on Our World in Data's processed figures - which combine the Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy (2024) with historical data from Vaclav Smil - we can track both total global energy consumption and solar energy production over time. The patterns are striking." For over a decade, solar energy production has grown at a remarkably consistent exponential rate. When we fit an exponential growth model to this data, we find solar energy has been growing at approximately 26% per year. Meanwhile, global energy consumption has grown much more modestly - just 1.5% annually. This consistency allows us to do something interesting: we can project these growth rates forward and see when the curves intersect.

The math is straightforward but powerful. Using exponential growth models fitted to both curves, we find that solar energy production intersects with total global energy consumption around 2044. You can examine the detailed analysis yourself - I've made all the code available here. What makes this projection particularly compelling is that it's based on actual observed growth rates, not optimistic assumptions about future improvements. It's simply what happens if current trends continue.

Beyond the Grid

But here's where it gets really interesting. Solar isn't just eating traditional electricity generation - it's poised to eat ALL energy use. Terraform Industries helps illustrate why. They're developing technology to produce natural gas using just sunlight and air, arguing that as solar power gets cheaper, there will come a time when it's cheaper to get carbon from the atmosphere than from an oil well. Their analysis suggests that "synthetic fuel will use 80+% of all solar generation long term."² This isn't about solar panels on roofs feeding the grid - it's about massive solar installations in sunny areas producing synthetic fuels that can be transported through existing natural gas pipelines.

When Not If

Of course, your skepticism might be kicking in again. What if solar's growth rate slows down? Let's look at what happens:

This tells us something profound: even if solar's growth rate drops substantially, the fundamental transition still happens. A drop to 20% growth only pushes the transition back to 2057. Even if growth plummets to 15% - a dramatic slowdown from historical trends - solar still becomes our primary energy source within this century.

The implication is clear: we're not debating whether solar becomes our primary energy source, we're just debating when. The laws of exponential growth are relentless - even slower exponentials eventually overtake linear growth.

Addressing the Doubts

But what about intermittency? Recent analysis from Auke Hoekstra shows that sodium batteries are about to become "ridiculously cheap" - potentially dropping to $8/kWh by 2030. This will transform our electricity grid, making intermittency a non-issue.

And grid capacity? Much of solar's growth will happen in developing countries near the equator - places that often lack extensive grid infrastructure to begin with. As Hoekstra points out, "solar+batteries is a match made in heaven for countries close to the equator ... Solar+batteries can become a great wealth multiplier for the countries that need and deserve it the most."

The World Ahead

If solar becomes our primary energy source by 2044, it will transform the global economy in ways we're only beginning to understand. Countries near the equator could become energy superpowers. The geopolitics of energy would be completely reshaped. And perhaps most importantly, we'd have a clear path to addressing climate change while expanding global energy access.

The math is clear, the technology is proven, and the growth rates are consistent. The only question is whether we're ready for the transformation coming our way.